A source of endless fascination for most anglers is to watch the seasons change. This week while surfcasting from a midtown Santa Cruz beach, I noticed Steamer Lane’s Middle Peak was showing some impressive size to the sets. “Winter is here,” I smiled to  myself. A quick delve into the local marine and weather forecasts confirmed that feeling, and in a big way.

We all know we’re in an El Nino situation. One of the largest recorded in fact. Warmer water even at great depths along the equator translates to increased sea temperatures all along the California and Oregon Coasts during the spring and summer months. A host of corollary conditions arise as a result.  One, we enjoy an influx of unusual or “exotic” fish into our waters and two, we can expect extreme weather conditions during the following winter. That can manifest in either an extremely wet or extremely dry winter season.

It will be interesting to see what effect the coming storms will have on local warm water conditions. As of last week, the exotics are still firmly in the mix. Anglers reported more bluefin tuna caught, mostly north of Santa Cruz by the Davenport Fingers.Generally, the catches were of school sized tuna in the 20 to 60-pound range. Juveniles. White sea bass are a more temperate fish than tuna and in some years, including this one, have arrived in big numbers and stuck around to most anglers' delight. Plenty of bonito were reported caught this week along with an unusual flurry of juvenile Mako sharks in the two to four-foot range. (These are babies, please take a quick picture if you must, and get them back in the water.) Catches of our normal species remain very strong with rockfish limits coming from the deep water mostly, and lingcod and cabezon improving on the nearshore reefs. Anglers hoop-netting for Dungeness crab reported quick limits for the most part.

The north swell indicator noticed earlier in the week is an historical harbinger of winter. It means big storms are brewing in the gulf of Alaska and beyond, towards the Bering Sea. Checking the in depth analysis and forecasting from our own Lee Solomon I was somewhat astonished to see what we really have in store, at least for the short term. It looks like our El Nino winter is likely to be of the wetter variety. Soloman has broken out from the corporate media and established his own independent weather reporting platform, “Beyond Weather.” Online, the URL is https://beyondweather.tv/. You can get the smartphone app “Beyond Weather Lee Solomon” from Apple or Google and their Facebook page features daily updates and on the spot reporting from local beaches. With more than twenty years as a local meteorologist here on the Central Coast, his approach is both global and personal. He’s our kind of guy, not only an expert in terms of ocean conditions and weather patterns, but an avid snowboarder, surfer, and fanatic fisherman, especially for striped bass both here and on the East Coast. 

Beyond Weather forecasts two initial strong systems headed our way, due to start on Thursday, and resume again on Sunday. The first system is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska, with 60-80 mph winds creating swells of 45-50 feet.  Solomon reports, “That doesn’t mean that’s what we’re going to see, but we will get  a nice piece of that in the 15 to 20 foot range, if not a little bit higher.”  Wind and rain is expected by Friday. A weaker system on Sunday and Monday will bring more rain and wind. Probably a good weekend to keep the boat at the dock, and forego any thoughts of surfcasting. The beaches will be extremely dangerous. All experts are adding to stay on high ground. Don’t tempt fate.